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Most American adults do not hold a bachelor’s degree. Most high school career conversations are still designed as if they will.
Walk into any American high school in May and you will see seniors making consequential decisions about the next five years of their lives, often with very little information on which to make them. That gap is a problem for all students, but it is a structural problem for one group in particular: students who are not on a four-year college pathway. The career conversation in most secondary schools is implicitly designed around the assumption that the student is heading to a bachelor’s degree. The data on what actually happens after high school says otherwise.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 educational attainment data released in September 2025, only 38.6 percent of Americans age 25 and older hold a bachelor’s degree or higher. Just under half of employed workers, 49.3 percent, have a high school diploma or associate degree as their highest credential. Whatever the high school counselor’s office is built around, the majority of the country, and the majority of the labor market, is not the four-year college pipeline.
The exposure gap is widest for the students it affects most
There are two career-launch problems researchers have consistently documented in U.S. secondary schools. The first is an exposure gap: too few students are aware of the career options actually available to them. The second is an experience gap: too few students engage in the kind of work-based learning, internships, or apprenticeships that would help them choose. Both gaps fall hardest on students whose families do not have a college credential to draw on for informal career guidance, which is the same population most likely to leave high school without continuing to a four-year degree.
The numbers on student career certainty have been quietly getting worse. ACT’s 2025 High School Students Career Choices and Career Confidence research found that only about half of high school students surveyed had decided on the occupation they wanted to pursue, while roughly 45 percent had some options in mind but had not decided. Internationally, the OECD’s analysis of approximately 690,000 students across more than 80 countries found that roughly four in ten fifteen- and sixteen-year-olds are unclear about their career expectations, a share that has roughly doubled over the past decade.
For administrators, the operational implication is clear: the assumption that students will figure it out by senior year is not holding. Especially for students whose postsecondary destination is not college, the silence on careers in middle and early high school turns into an information vacuum that gets filled with whatever the student happens to encounter, which is often very little.
What the research says about CTE for this population
Career and Technical Education, once treated as a tracking system and now largely reframed as a pathway-building system, is the strongest single intervention with a research base for this group. The findings are consistent across multiple decades of studies synthesized by the CTE Research Network and the National Dropout Prevention Center.
CTE coursetaking in high school is associated with lower dropout rates and higher on-time graduation. The effect is largest for students most at risk of dropping out, and it grows when CTE courses are concentrated in eleventh and twelfth grade rather than spread out as exploratory introductions in earlier grades. The Bridgeland, DiIulio, and Morison report The Silent Epidemic, one of the most cited dropout studies of the last two decades, found that 81 percent of high school dropouts said that relevant, real-world learning opportunities would have kept them in school. That is not a survey about academic rigor. It is a survey about meaning, relevance, and a connection to a recognizable future.
“Eighty-one percent of high school dropouts said that opportunities for real-world learning would improve students’ chances of staying in high school.”
Paraphrased finding from Bridgeland, DiIulio, and Morison, The Silent Epidemic (2006), Civic Enterprises for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
CTE is also one of the few areas of secondary education where the post-program outcomes are easily measurable. Students who complete coherent CTE pathways are more likely to graduate, more likely to enter postsecondary education of some kind including community college and certificate programs, and more likely to enter the labor market at wages that exceed the average for similarly credentialed peers without CTE.
Why career exploration materials fail the students who need them most
There is a quieter problem inside the CTE conversation that administrators serving striving readers will recognize immediately. The standard career exploration materials, whether printed or online, are typically written well above the reading level of the population that most needs them. Department of Labor career profiles, O*NET descriptions, and most college-and-career planning websites assume something close to grade-level reading from the user. A fourteen-year-old reading at a fourth-grade level is effectively locked out of nearly all of them.
The students who most need a clear, accessible introduction to career fields, including the skilled trades, healthcare support roles, public service careers, advanced manufacturing, and the dozens of other paths that the labor market actually needs, are also the students least likely to be able to read the materials describing them. The result is a population that does not know what career options exist, does not know what those options pay, does not know what training they require, and has no way to find out at their current reading level.
This is the design problem Hi-Lo publishers in the CTE space have built around. Saddleback’s CTE Journeys handbooks, Lifeskills in Action series, and Life and Work Ready materials are written for adolescent readers below grade level, with content covering real career fields, day-in-the-life portraits of workers, and the practical financial and soft-skill knowledge those careers require. The category is small but it exists for the same reason Hi-Lo fiction exists: standard materials are inaccessible to the very population they are nominally designed to serve.
What administrators can do this year
A full CTE program redesign is a multi-year initiative. Building career awareness for non-college-bound students is more immediate. Three steps are within reach for most districts.
- Add career exposure to the eighth and ninth grade experience, not just to eleventh and twelfth. The information vacuum opens earlier than most career programs assume. Even short modules covering a handful of career fields per quarter, with accessible reading material, change what students consider possible.
- Audit the reading level of every career exploration resource your counselors, content teachers, and intervention staff are currently using. If the materials are written at a tenth grade level and your tier 2 students are reading at a fifth grade level, the materials are not doing the work you think they are.
- Build a career exploration shelf into your library and intervention classrooms that includes Hi-Lo career titles, accessible career biographies, and graphic-format career profiles. Saddleback’s CTE Journeys catalog is one option built specifically for this population, but the design principle holds regardless of vendor: accessible, age-respectful, and tied to the careers your students will actually consider.
The bottom line
Most American adults do not have a bachelor’s degree. The labor market that absorbs your graduates is mostly a non-bachelor’s labor market. The students in your buildings whose futures sit in that part of the economy deserve a career conversation that is honest about it, starts earlier than senior year, and uses materials they can actually read. That is what serious career exploration for non-college-bound students looks like. It is one of the highest-leverage moves a secondary district can make for the population most likely to fall through the cracks of a college-default counseling system.
Sources
- ACT (2025). High School Students’ Career Choices and Career Confidence. https://www.act.org/content/dam/act/unsecured/documents/R2535-High-School-Students-Career-Choices-and-Career-Confidence-2025-12.pdf
- Advance CTE (2017). Linking the Timing of Career and Technical Education Coursetaking with High School Dropout and College-Going Behavior. https://careertech.org/resource/linking-the-timing-of-career-and-technical-education-coursetaking-with-high-school-dropout-and-college-going-behavior/
- Bridgeland, J., DiIulio, J., and Morison, K. B. (2006). The Silent Epidemic: Perspectives of High School Dropouts. Civic Enterprises for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED513444
- CTE Research Network. What We Know About the Impact of Career and Technical Education: A Systematic Review (2024). https://cteresearchnetwork.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/CTE-Systematic-Review-508.pdf
- National Dropout Prevention Center. Career and Technical Education (CTE) Effective Strategies. https://dropoutprevention.org/effective-strategies/career-and-technology-education-cte/
- OECD analysis of student career expectations, summarized in The 74 (2025). https://www.the74million.org/article/survey-finds-teens-worldwide-are-lost-in-the-transition-after-high-school/
- S. Census Bureau (2025). Educational Attainment in the United States: 2024. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025/educational-attainment-data.html
- Saddleback Educational Publishing. CTE Journeys Handbooks and Career Exploration Books. https://www.sdlback.com/cte-journeys-handbooks